Semis Game 3 Preview: Can the Liberty and Aces Do What No WNBA Team Has Done?
This preview was published before the games. For the results, read our recaps: Dream sweep the Liberty and Valkyries sweep the Aces.
New York has outscored Atlanta in four of the eight regulation quarters and still trails the series 2-0 (Game 1, Game 2). The difference is possessions: the Liberty have committed 38 turnovers to the Dream's 22, and Atlanta has taken 26 more shots across the two games.
Both semifinal Game 3s are Friday, and the stakes are simple. Teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five WNBA series are 19-0 all time. The Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces are both trying to be the first team to come back.
Late news (updated Oct 9, 3:45 PM PT)
- Dream: Allisha Gray (left hand) is out for Game 3 per ESPN's injury report, updated at 3:21 PM PT, with an estimated return of Oct 11.
- Liberty: We found no announced lineup change as of 2:10 PM PT.
- Aces: Jewell Loyd and Stephanie Talbot (left leg) are still listed as game-time decisions on ESPN's injury report. Talbot's entry was updated at 12:05 PM PT. Dana Evans isn't on the list.
- Valkyries: No new injuries. Only Iliana Rupert, out for the season, is listed.
- Lines moved: Liberty -3.5 (was -2.5), total 170.5 (was 172.5). Aces -5.5 (was -3.5), total 156.5 (unchanged). DraftKings via ESPN, checked at 2:04 PM PT.
Dream at Liberty: Friday, 4:30 PM PT, Barclays Center, ESPN2
What decided Games 1 and 2. Ball security, both nights. New York has turned it over 38 times in two games, counting team turnovers. Atlanta has 22. The Dream have scored 60 points off those giveaways while the Liberty have scored 24 (G1 box, G2 box). That's a 36-point swing in a series Atlanta leads by a combined 13.
Atlanta also leads 20-12 in offensive rebounds and 155-129 in field goal attempts. New York has shot better, 48.8% to 42.6%, but that advantage has not made up for the gap in attempts. The Dream lead 29-8 in fast-break points, too.
The key matchup. Angel Reese against that New York frontcourt. Reese is plus-18 in the series, the best mark on either team, with Jordin Canada at plus-17 and Naz Hillmon at plus-16. On the other side, Marine Fauthoux is the only Liberty player with a positive plus-minus (plus-6). Starters Leonie Fiebich and Pauline Astier are both minus-10.
These plus-minus figures cover only two games and reflect the lineups on the floor. They help describe what happened; they do not isolate any one player's impact.
New York's stars are scoring. Breanna Stewart dropped 35 in Game 2 and Sabrina Ionescu had 27 in Game 1. But Ionescu also had 5 turnovers in Game 1, and Jonquel Jones had 6 in Game 2.
Atlanta's bench has outscored New York's 42-29, and 23 of those came from DeWanna Bonner in Game 1. And they did most of this without their leading scorer. Gray hurt her left shooting hand in Game 1, played 11 minutes and missed Game 2. She is out for Game 3 per ESPN's injury report, updated 3:21 PM PT, with an estimated return of Oct 11.
New York needs to protect the ball and finish defensive possessions with a rebound. Its shooting has kept both games competitive; fewer empty trips would give that shooting a better chance to matter. Atlanta can keep pressing the advantage by forcing turnovers and pursuing second chances.
My pick is Atlanta. New York has committed at least 17 turnovers in each game, and the Dream have repeatedly converted those mistakes into points. Allisha Gray's availability could strengthen that pick, but Atlanta has already shown it can win without her.
Valkyries at Aces: Friday, 6:30 PM PT, Michelob ULTRA Arena, Peacock and NBCSN
What decided Games 1 and 2. The glass. The Golden State Valkyries have 27 offensive rebounds to Vegas's 8, and they've outrebounded the Aces 82-50 (G1 box, G2 box). Rebounds here use the player totals in the linked box score. Kiah Stokes hasn't scored a point in this series and still has 21 rebounds.
Then there's the bench. Golden State's reserves have outscored Vegas's 61-21. Tiffany Hayes has 24 of those, including 21 in 17 minutes in Game 2. Janelle Salaun is plus-18 in just 10 minutes, and Kaitlyn Chen is plus-11.
Here's the stat that should scare Golden State. The Valkyries have turned it over 29 times to Vegas's 18, counting team turnovers. They're winning anyway because Vegas hasn't punished it, scoring 24 points off those turnovers to Golden State's 27.
The key matchup. Golden State's starts against Vegas's finishes. The Valkyries are plus-14 in first halves. In second halves, the Aces are plus-1. Golden State won the first quarter of Game 2 by 8, and Vegas answered by winning the fourth by 9 (G2 box).
A'ja Wilson has 48 points in two games and is still minus-11. Chelsea Gray is also minus-11. The Aces' best plus-minus belongs to Kalani Brown at plus-7, while Brianna Turner is minus-16 and Kierstan Bell is minus-15.
Injuries matter here. As of Friday afternoon, ESPN still listed Loyd and Talbot as game-time decisions with left leg injuries (ESPN game page). Loyd didn't play in Game 2. Evans wasn't on ESPN's injury list when we checked, and she played 18 minutes in Game 2.
What each team has to do. Vegas has to box out. You can't give up 17 offensive rebounds like they did in Game 1 and survive. Golden State has to clean up the turnovers and get the same punch from Gabby Williams, who has 45 points in two games, and Kayla Thornton.
The pick: Aces win Game 3. The defending champs won the second half of this series, swept the regular-season meetings 3-0, and get Michelob ULTRA Arena behind them. In Game 2 they outshot Golden State 44% to 41% and had the ball down two at the end. If Wilson and Gray stop digging out of holes, Vegas extends this. If the Aces lose the glass 52-25 like they did in Game 1, nothing else matters.
For the bettors and fantasy players
The home teams were favored for Game 3. These DraftKings prices, displayed by ESPN at 2:04 p.m. PT on October 9, are for the individual games, not the series: Liberty -3.5 (Dream-Liberty) and Aces -5.5 (Valkyries-Aces). That's a bold call, because the Dream and Valkyries are both 2-0 against the spread. The totals sit at 170.5 and 156.5. Both Dream-Liberty games went over, while Valkyries-Aces split 1-1.
Across Games 1 and 2, Breanna Stewart averaged 51.6 DraftKings points and Gabby Williams averaged 40.8. Tiffany Hayes produced 36.75 points in 28 total minutes. Her per-36 rate describes a small sample; it is not a minutes or scoring projection. My betting leans are Dream +3.5 and the Aces moneyline. Allisha Gray is out for Game 3 per ESPN's injury report, updated 3:21 PM PT, with an estimated return of Oct 11. Check the latest injury report and prices before placing a bet. 21+. Gamble responsibly. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Box scores: Dream-Liberty Game 1, Game 2; Valkyries-Aces Game 1, Game 2 (ESPN).
How this story was made: Ryan Moalemi picked the story and the angle. Full Court Buckets gathers its own game data and verifies it against official box scores. AI tools drafted it from that data and the sources linked above so it could post the same night, then Ryan reviewed and edited it before publishing. How we make Full Court Buckets
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