WNBA Finals Game 2 preview: Atlanta lost the turnover battle for the first time this postseason
Follow the play-by-play: Dream vs. Valkyries, Game 2 →
The Atlanta Dream forced 44 more turnovers than they committed across their first five playoff games, and they won the turnover count in all five. In Game 1 of the WNBA Finals, the Golden State Valkyries flipped it: Atlanta turned it over 12 times to Golden State's 8 and lost 68-64.
Game 2 is Monday at Chase Center, with Golden State up 1-0. The question for Atlanta is whether it can get its best weapon back, because the Dream also went 2 of 19 from the field in the fourth quarter of Game 1, and Golden State's late blocks came from four players other than Kiah Stokes.
Finals Game 2 at a glance
- When: Monday, Oct. 19, at 5 p.m. PT
- Where: Chase Center, San Francisco
- TV and streaming: USA Network, CNBC and Peacock
- Series: Golden State leads 1-0
- Series odds: Valkyries -190, Dream +155 (DraftKings, checked Oct. 19 at 12:13 p.m. PT)
- Game line: Valkyries -2.5, total 152.5 (DraftKings, checked Oct. 19 at 12:13 p.m. PT)
- Next: Game 3 is Wednesday, Oct. 21, at 5 p.m. PT at State Farm Arena in Atlanta (Valkyries schedule update, WNBA release on Games 3 and 4)
Injury report
As of the league's official injury report from Oct. 19 at 12:00 p.m. ET (9:00 a.m. PT) (WNBA injury report).
Atlanta: Brionna Jones (left leg) is out. She is the only player on either team's list.
Allisha Gray is not listed. She was listed available for Game 1 with a left-hand injury and played 33 minutes in her return. "I felt good playing out there. My finger felt good, was able to get through the physicality," Gray said after Game 1 (AP).
Golden State: No players are listed for Game 2. Iliana Rupert has been away from the team all season for a non-injury reason.
What happened in Game 1
Golden State won 68-64 by holding Atlanta scoreless over the final 3:12. Gabby Williams scored 8 of the Valkyries' last 9 points and finished with 26. Atlanta led 64-61 after Rhyne Howard's free throws at 3:12 and missed all seven of its field-goal attempts after that. Our Game 1 recap has the full sequence.
"Unfortunately, we had kind of one bad defensive quarter where we had a few breakdowns and then one bad offensive quarter in the fourth," Dream coach Karl Smesko said (USA Today).
The turnover battle flipped
Atlanta's playoff run was built on extra possessions. The Dream won the turnover count by 15 and 11 against Washington, then by 6, 9 and 3 against New York. In Game 1 they lost it by 4, and Golden State scored 17 points off Atlanta's 12 turnovers. Atlanta scored 8 off Golden State's 8 (WNBA box score).
Golden State also won the offensive glass 12-7. Add the turnover margin and the offensive-rebound margin together, and the Valkyries have come out ahead in all seven of their playoff games, including their one loss, to Dallas. Atlanta had been ahead in all five of its games before Saturday, and finished minus-9 in Game 1.
The turnover counts here are player turnovers from FCB's game files, which leave out team turnovers. Counting team turnovers, Golden State had 10, so the official count was 12-10, not 12-8. That's also why Atlanta's semifinal margin is plus-18 here and plus-19 in our Game 1 preview. One Finals game is a small sample, so this shows what changed on Saturday, not what will happen Monday.
The fourth quarter, and who protected the rim
Atlanta made 2 of 19 shots in the fourth quarter, missed all 7 of its threes and scored 8 points. Five of those 19 shots were blocked.
Stokes finished with 4 blocks, but all four came in the first half. The five fourth-quarter blocks came from four different players: Veronica Burton had two, and Cecilia Zandalasini, Kaila Charles and Tiffany Hayes had one each. Every one of them came close to the rim, including Zandalasini's block of a 5-foot pullup and Burton's second, on Gray's floater. Burton blocked Jordin Canada at 3:33 and Gray at 2:40, with Atlanta trying to protect a one-possession lead.
Gray went 0 for 7 in the fourth. Atlanta's starting guards, Gray, Howard and Canada, shot 11 of 42 for the game. If the Dream keep driving into the same help, they need to finish those plays or turn them into kickouts before the second defender arrives.
The odds and my pick
DraftKings has Golden State favored by 2.5 points in Game 2, with the Valkyries at -105 and the Dream +2.5 at -115. The moneyline is Golden State -135 and Atlanta +114. The total is 152.5, with the over at -108 and the under at -112. DraftKings opened Game 2 at Golden State -1.5 with a 151.5 total (DraftKings Network), so both numbers have gone up a point.
The series price is Valkyries -190 and Dream +155, per DraftKings. Prices were checked Oct. 19 at 12:13 p.m. PT and may change before tip-off.
My betting lean is the under 152.5. Game 1 finished with 132 points, 20.5 under this total, and neither team made more than a third of its shots. One game is a small sample, and Atlanta scored at least 85 in every playoff game before Saturday, so this is a lean, not a lock.
My pick is Golden State to win Game 2. The Valkyries have won the combined turnover and offensive-rebound count in all seven playoff games, and that edge doesn't depend on their shots falling.
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TV: USA Network (simulcast on CNBC) ยท Stream: Peacock
How this story was made: drafted with AI tools from the sources linked above, then reviewed and edited by Ryan Moalemi. How we make Full Court Buckets
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